We all know that Reds fan that refuses to go all in; refuses to let go and get swept up in the excitement of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds. Is it too early to discuss clinched divisions, the playoff picture, or dare we say World Series? The answer is…maybe? Baseball is a fickle sport and anything can happen with a crack of the bat. This couldn’t be any more evident if you think back on the 2011 regular season, the NL Central to be exact. This day last year the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games behind the first place Milwaukee Brewers.
This year is a different story; the Cincinnati Reds have the best record in baseball at 79-52. As of today the Reds have the largest divisional lead in all of baseball. They are currently 7.0 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals while most divisions don’t have more than a few games dividing first and second place.
With 31 games left, the Reds are sure to make the playoffs. They have yet to play sub-.500 ball all season, and if they do their record would be something like 95-67. Such a record averages that of a team that clinches their division. But we don’t plan on seeing the Reds play worse than .500 ball anytime soon.
The Reds pitching seems to be the glue that keeps this team in first place. In the NL, the Reds are tied for second best ERA with 3.47. The team should be a little better, but the Earned Run Averages of Homer Bailey and Mike Leake jumped up after a couple bad outings. Leakes’ ERA went from 4.29 when he pitched a complete game, to 4.59 after he took a shelling in Philadelphia for a 12-5 loss. Leake pitched a stellar 6 2/3 innings last week against St. Louis for an 8-2 win, lowering his ERA to 4.51.
Homer Bailey on the other hand owned a 3.53 ERA a month ago but has slowly been on the rise and currently at 4.24. Bailey blew by his innings pitched record of 132, currently at 159.1 with a few regular season starts left to go. We don’t plan on seeing either Mike Leake or Homer Bailey pitching in the post season, they are young and still have a ways to go before being playoff contenders. You never know what could happen with a month to play, Leake would be an excellent fourth starter due to his ability to swing the bat as a DH.
On the other hand, Reds ace Johnny Cueto has the best ERA in the NL with 2.48 and was the first to reach 17 wins this season. Cueto has started showing signs of command issues but nothing that could derail the ball club. Johnny is also the projected winner of the 2012 Cy Young award; other candidates include Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, and Aroldis Chapman, the Reds record setting closer.
While on the Cuban Missile topic, Aroldis Chapman just blew by the club record of most consecutive saves. In true Chapman fashion, he beat the record Monday night against the Arizona Diomandbacks, then Tuesday he one upped Reds Dibble/Franco shared record of 32 consecutive saves. Next in the missiles crosshairs is Jeff Brantley’s most saves in a season record of 44. For Chapman to reach Brantley’s record, he would need to secure at least one save per series for the rest of the regular season. Chapman can get the save no problem, it’s a matter of the offense putting him in a position to claim it.
The remaining two pitchers, Mat Latos and Bronson Arroyo appear to be the additional post season pitchers that the Reds club needs to carry them deep into the playoffs. Both Arroyo and Latos carry a 3.84 ERA, however Latos has fanned 145 batters this season while Arroyo only 105. Both hurlers have given up 23 home runs, which is great for Latos considering he came from Petco Park to GABP. Both righties have pitched roughly 165 innings, while Latos tends to walk more batters than Bronson. With the post season just over a month away, the rotation emerges as Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo; come hell, high water, or injury, this should be Dusty’s three starters.
Though the clubs defense has been the backbone of their success, you can’t win games without runs. The Reds lineup doesn’t necessarily contain great batting averages and on-base percentages; rather the key to their offensive success is the extra base hit. The Cincinnati Reds lead the National League in doubles and are second in home runs only to the Brewers, who own 156 to the Reds 150. Luckily, a good series at home could easily propel the Reds into the statistical lead. The Reds have relied heavily on the long ball this season, and why not with such a ball park as GABP. Actually at GABP, the left field wall is the same distance and height as Crosley’s left field. Center field is a replica of Riverfront Stadium, and of course, right field is the minimum distance permitted by Major League Baseball.
The Reds are a difficult team to judge offensively; the fine line between starter and utility/bench players can get a little fuzzy with this roster. Regulars Brandon Phillips, Ryan Hanigan, Ryan Ludwick, Bruce, and Zack Cozart have all been instrumental in the clubs success. These are just half of the regular starters you would expect from a league leading team. Through Joey Votto’s injury, rookie Todd Frazier has had the opportunity to start at either first base or third base, all while covering for the fragile but yet still gold glove worthy Scott Rolen. Frazier has proven himself a serious Rookie of the Year contender. Frazier, better known as the Todd-Father in Cincinnati, dubbed by his love for Frank Sinatra, also his At-Bat song, has stepped up with a .295/.355/.555 dash line. Frazier just notched his 100th while carrying 18 home runs and 62 rib-eye steaks. According to the Cincinnati Reds official website, Frazier is listed as a third baseman.
Joey Votto played almost five innings last night in Dayton as part of a rehab assignment. Votto drew a walk in his first at bat and struck out to a West Michigan Whitecaps pitcher Jeff Ferrall; probably the greatest night of Ferralls life. Votto played first base during the game, though he did not field any balls, he took a few throws onto first. Votto plans on taking three or four at bats tonight against the Great Lake Loons. Votto should be returning September 1st; the Reds won’t have to make any roster moves since the 40-man roster expansion is set to take place.
The other player that Todd Frazier was set to take over for was the All-Star and Gold Glover Scott Rolen. Rolen has been plagued with shoulder and back injuries all season, preluding to his last major league season, though no official comment has been made. Scott has been appearing in the lineup more consistently as of late and might have his injury under control. With Votto’s return and Rolens health does not really mean good bye to Todd Frazier. Votto won’t be able to start every day for quite some time and Rolen is really just a bat swing away from the disabled list. Frazier will be a common sight on one corner or the other.
The real unsung hero of this winning ball club is the now veteran catcher Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan brings a lot more to the plate than just his offensive capabilities. Hanigan, a contact hitter, perfect for the bottom of the lineup owns a .290/.382/.359 line. He may very well be the only catcher in all of baseball that can catch the blazing Aroldis Chapman, and certainly is the only catcher on the Reds roster that does so. Hanigan calls the games for Cuteo, Latos, and Arroyo in addition to coming off the bench for the save. Hanigan has a cannon for an arm; he is second in the league for stolen bases allowed and 6th for caught stealing. Hanigan owns a .462 caught stealing percentage. Even while catching Aroldis Chapman, Hanigan only has 2 passed balls, just one behind Buster Posey. Above all, Hanigan has the best catcher’s ERA with 3.06, Brain McCann is in second with a 3.42. Hanigan’s ERA best depicts his ability to call a game, a stat rarely considered by fans and stat-junkies alike.
What can we expect for the roster expansion? First and foremost don’t plan on seeing Billy Hamilton called up this year. Billy still needs a lot of work defensively and against big league pitching. Hamilton was promoted to the double A Bakersfield Blaze recently and still needs time with the Louisville Bats before we see him in a Reds uniform for 2012. I suspect he will be at Spring Training 2013, only to start the clock on his first option and play a while for the Bats.
Didi Gregorius, a natural shortstop and slugging left hander. Didi has an outstanding arm and decent enough range. Don’t count on Didi running Cozart out of a job anytime soon. Didi has some issues at the plate and with baserunning, however when called up it will be only to give Cozart rest for the post season while the club just gets to get a better look at Didi; all while he gets a chance to see some big league ball.
Henry Rodriguez, a switch hitter and second baseman. Rodriguez hits for average from both sides of the plate and hits with a lot of power for a smaller player. Being only 150 lbs at 5"10 makes Henry a threat on the bases too. Same situation with Didi, the Reds want to get a look at this guy while he gets some major league playing time. Much like Cozart, Brandon Phillips, like it or not, will get some rest near the end of the season.
Neftali Soto, the Reds AAA first baseman is clearly not replacing Votto. With Yonder Alonso gone to San Diego, Soto became the Reds next top prospect for first base. Soto has a lot of plate discipline and his numbers have skyrocketed this year. There is a lot at work here as Votto will be slow to return to his old self and Frazier available to work first or third. However, if Frazier is tied up playing third the Reds may want to call Soto up to relieve Votto throughout his comeback. Without a doubt Votto will not be an everyday starter for some time, if the Reds record and lead allows, we could see Soto manning first base this month.
Joey Votto played almost five innings last night in Dayton as part of a rehab assignment. Votto drew a walk in his first at bat and struck out to a West Michigan Whitecaps pitcher Jeff Ferrall; probably the greatest night of Ferralls life. Votto played first base during the game, though he did not field any balls, he took a few throws onto first. Votto plans on taking three or four at bats tonight against the Great Lake Loons. Votto should be returning September 1st; the Reds won’t have to make any roster moves since the 40-man roster expansion is set to take place.
The other player that Todd Frazier was set to take over for was the All-Star and Gold Glover Scott Rolen. Rolen has been plagued with shoulder and back injuries all season, preluding to his last major league season, though no official comment has been made. Scott has been appearing in the lineup more consistently as of late and might have his injury under control. With Votto’s return and Rolens health does not really mean good bye to Todd Frazier. Votto won’t be able to start every day for quite some time and Rolen is really just a bat swing away from the disabled list. Frazier will be a common sight on one corner or the other.
The real unsung hero of this winning ball club is the now veteran catcher Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan brings a lot more to the plate than just his offensive capabilities. Hanigan, a contact hitter, perfect for the bottom of the lineup owns a .290/.382/.359 line. He may very well be the only catcher in all of baseball that can catch the blazing Aroldis Chapman, and certainly is the only catcher on the Reds roster that does so. Hanigan calls the games for Cuteo, Latos, and Arroyo in addition to coming off the bench for the save. Hanigan has a cannon for an arm; he is second in the league for stolen bases allowed and 6th for caught stealing. Hanigan owns a .462 caught stealing percentage. Even while catching Aroldis Chapman, Hanigan only has 2 passed balls, just one behind Buster Posey. Above all, Hanigan has the best catcher’s ERA with 3.06, Brain McCann is in second with a 3.42. Hanigan’s ERA best depicts his ability to call a game, a stat rarely considered by fans and stat-junkies alike.
What can we expect for the roster expansion? First and foremost don’t plan on seeing Billy Hamilton called up this year. Billy still needs a lot of work defensively and against big league pitching. Hamilton was promoted to the double A Bakersfield Blaze recently and still needs time with the Louisville Bats before we see him in a Reds uniform for 2012. I suspect he will be at Spring Training 2013, only to start the clock on his first option and play a while for the Bats.
Didi Gregorius, a natural shortstop and slugging left hander. Didi has an outstanding arm and decent enough range. Don’t count on Didi running Cozart out of a job anytime soon. Didi has some issues at the plate and with baserunning, however when called up it will be only to give Cozart rest for the post season while the club just gets to get a better look at Didi; all while he gets a chance to see some big league ball.
Henry Rodriguez, a switch hitter and second baseman. Rodriguez hits for average from both sides of the plate and hits with a lot of power for a smaller player. Being only 150 lbs at 5"10 makes Henry a threat on the bases too. Same situation with Didi, the Reds want to get a look at this guy while he gets some major league playing time. Much like Cozart, Brandon Phillips, like it or not, will get some rest near the end of the season.
Neftali Soto, the Reds AAA first baseman is clearly not replacing Votto. With Yonder Alonso gone to San Diego, Soto became the Reds next top prospect for first base. Soto has a lot of plate discipline and his numbers have skyrocketed this year. There is a lot at work here as Votto will be slow to return to his old self and Frazier available to work first or third. However, if Frazier is tied up playing third the Reds may want to call Soto up to relieve Votto throughout his comeback. Without a doubt Votto will not be an everyday starter for some time, if the Reds record and lead allows, we could see Soto manning first base this month.
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