Thursday, September 20, 2012

9/20/12: NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF ANALYSIS

The NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF ANALYSIS is a comprehensive one-stop stat checker for the National League Playoff picture and Wild Card chase.  2012 is proving to be the closest wild card chase in history and things are just starting to get interesting. Our in-depth research and analysis of a team’s approach in the 2012 Playoffs provides current standings, division leaders, Wild Card chase analysis, upcoming schedules, predictions, statistics, and synopsis. Updated each morning reflecting the fluid changes of the current battle raging within three divisions across the National League.

We welcome comments or personal opinions regarding a team’s progress and playoff approach. Don’t waste your time surfing multiple websites for the information you need, we have crunched the numbers, had a few pots of coffee, and compiled all your needs right here on Spoke Bait and the Game. Check in daily for up to the minute statistics up the last game of the 2012 regular season.



National League Post-Season and WC chase; as of 7:15am, 9/20/2012


STANDINGS:
NL East- Washington (90-58)
NL Central- Cincinnati (90-59)
NL West- San Francisco (86-63)

WILD CARD:
(-) Atlanta 86-64
(-) St. Louis 79-70
(2.0) L.A.D 77-72
(-2.5) Milwaukee 76-72
(-4.0) Philadelphia 75-74
(-4.5) PIT 74-74

 
FRAMEWORK:
Home/away opponent (# of games in series); Total W-L record against opp. (W-L record against opp. In home/away series.)
*
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING 1 TO 10, 1 BEING EASY, 10 BEING DIFFICULT





Wild Card #1: Atlanta Braves-
Wash. (3); 8-10 (4-5) *series results 3-0
@ Miami (3); 11-4 (7-2) *series results 2-1
@Philadelphia (3); 10-5 (5-1)*series in progress (0-0)
Miami (3); 9-3 (4-2)
N.Y. M. (3); 10-5 (5-1)
@ Pittsburgh (3); 2-2 (2-2)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 4.0
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 99.9% (trending up)
SYNOPSIS: Substantial WC lead, no west coast travel for the remainder of season, the only major hurdle was an early 3 game series hosting the Nationals; the Braves will be coasting through the remainder of their season winning most if not all series. As of today, the Phillies and Pirates don't seem to be contending for the post season and should be no match for the Braves. ATL looks to hold onto the #1 WC spot for the rest of September and could threaten the Nationals for the NL East title. The Nationals will be battling all teams chasing the WC, and could lose the division if they are not careful.
 
 


Wild Card #2: St. Louis Cardinals-
@LA D. (4); 5-6 (2-5) *series results (2-2)
Houston (3); 8-3 (5-0)*series in progress (2-0)
@Chicago C. (3); 8-6 (2-4)
@Houston (3) 6-3 (3-3)
Wash. (3); 1-2 (N/A)
Cincinnati (3); 6-6 (2-1)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 6.5
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 67% (trending up)
SYNOPSIS: A lot of traveling this month against teams they have had trouble putting away. STL will have to gain ground on the Astros when they have the chance; facing the Cubs at Wrigley is no sure thing with a 2-4 record. The Cubs rolled over the Pirates and are looking to disrupt anyone post season chances if they still can. STL can't afford to be splitting series with any team if they want to safely hold onto the WC seed. STL will get lucky if Nationals and Reds clinch and rest starters near the end of the season. This day in 2011 STL fought their way back, and earned the WC already.



(-2.0) LA Dodgers-
 St. Louis (4); 6-5 (5-2) *series results (2-2)          
@Washington (3); 4-0 (1-0)*series in progress (1-0)
@Cincinnati (3); 2-1 (N/A)
@San Diego (3); 8-5 (3-1)
Colorado (3); 7-8 (4-2)
San Francisco (3); 6-9 (2-4)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 8.0
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 13.5% (trending down)
SYNOPSIS:  LA has toughest schedule to OCT; kicked off by a WC battle with STL (which it split). LA flies to the capital for a 3 game series with Nationals and don’t expect WSH to be resting starters quite yet, the Nats will be playing in full force after an embarrassing sweep delivered by division rivals Atlanta. The remainder of LA’s schedule is far from easy, topped off by a divisional game in LA against SF who should have clinched by this point, especially with SF walk-in-the-park schedule.  



(-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers-N.Y.M. (3); 3-2 (2-1) *series results (2-1)        
@Pittsburgh (3); 9-4 (3-1)*series in progress (2-0)
@Washington (4); 1-3 (N/A)
@Cincinnati (3); 5-7 (1-5)
Houston (3); 8-6 (5-1)
San Diego (3); 3-3 (2-1)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 7.5
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 11.6% (trending up)
SYNOPSIS: With minimal travel, MIL has a good chance of getting close to a WC spot. The Brewers walked passed the Bucs in the standings, but still have to finalize the change in rank in a three-game series this week, and the Brewers are off to an early start. MIL could be challenging STL for the spot, thought to be dictated by the STL/LA series, but they two teams split the four game series. MIL then rolls through the division against PIT, CIN, & HOU. CIN won’t be kicking back just yet and MIL has a great home record on HOU, but it might not mean much after a four game series with the Nationals.  



(-4.0) Philadelphia Phillies-
@Houston (4); 4-3 (1-3)*series results (1-3)
@N.Y.M.(3); 7-10 (4-3)*series in progress (2-0)
Atlanta (3); 5-10 (1-5)
Washington (3); 7-5 (4-2)
@Miami (3); 8-7 (2-4)
@Washington (3); 7-5 (3-3)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 5.5
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 1.5%
SYNOPSIS: With a bit of travel, PHI has a lot of work to do. PHI isn’t the team they were first part of the season and the above records don’t accurately reflect their potential. Regardless,  PHI couldn't capitalize in HOU. They desperately needed to hit the ground running, and have failed miserably. Now going into a tough series in Brooklyn, followed by a home stand against division rivals ATL, PHI could be in serious trouble. Though playing WSH twice, the Nationals should be resting starters by their second series early in OCT. Bottom line, if PHI can take a series from either WSH or ATL, we may see an interesting post season. If 2011 has taught the baseball world anything, it comes down to being in the chase today, and getting hot tomorrow; this could be the 2012 Phillies.


 
(-4.5) Pittsburgh Pirates-
@Chicago C. (4); 8-8 (4-3)*series results (2-2)
Milwaukee (3); 4-10 (1-4)* series in progress (0-2)
@Houston (3); 11-3 (3-1)
@N.Y. M. (4); 1-2 (N/A)
Cincinnati (3); 7-9 (4-3)
Atlanta (3); 2-2 (N/A)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 7.0
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 3.7% (trending down)
SYNOPSIS: With minimal travel, PIT has a fairly doable schedule; but they are going to have to prove they deserve to be in OCT, thus far the Bucs haven't shown they deserve to play past Oct. 3, they will have to kick it up a notch against the Brewers this week. Coming If the Bucs can’t break free in the first 3 series, count them out. Even if CIN is in rest mode, don’t count on an easy W, the same applies against the #1 seed ATL.





  
 


DIVISION LEADERS-


Washington Nationals (+5.0 ATL):
@Atlanta (3); 10-8 (5-4) *series results (0-3)
L.A. D. (3); 0-4 (0-1)*series in progress (0-1)
Milwaukee (4); 3-1 (N/A)
@Philadelphia (3); 5-7 (2-4)
@St. Louis (3); 2-1 (N/A)
Philadelphia (3); 5-7 (3-3)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 9.0
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 100% (trending up)
SYNOPSIS: Even with phenom super-star Bryce Harper riding on a unicorn, hitting for the cycle can’t guarantee the Nationals future; while those Nationals do have a cushy 5.5 games on the WC favorite Atlanta Braves. ATL has one of the gentler schedules ahead of them and the Nationals may have one of the toughest. Washington’s schedule contains five teams all battling within a 4.0 game gap for a WC spot. Each team that the Nationals encounter, home or away, will be playing with everything they have and then some. The Nationals will most likely win their division, but things could get interesting within the next six series. After being swept by ATL, the Nationals have no choice but to win the remainder of their series.


 


Cincinnati Reds (+11.0 STL):
@Miami (3); 3-3 (1-2) *series results (1-2)   
@Chicago C. (3); 11-4 (7-2)*series in progress (2-0)
Milwaukee (3); 7-5 (5-1)
@Pittsburgh (3); 9-7 (3-4)
@St. Louis (3); 6-6 (1-2)
SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 6.5
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 99.9% (maintain)
SYNOPSIS: CIN magic number is currently 4 and with an 11.0 game lead over STL, who have a tough schedule ahead of them, don’t count on the Reds getting caught. Though CIN has a tough schedule packed with division rivals, three of which are in the WC chase, CIN can go ahead and order the champagne and safety goggles. It's not all flowers and picnics for this Reds club, the offense has been worse than horrible, because being horrible would suggest it existed, which it doesn't. The Reds bats will need to get zeroed in if they want to have more than one playoff game in GABP (which I now have a ticket to).
 
 

San Francisco Giants (+9.0 L.A. D.):
@Arizona (3); 7-5 (4-2) *series results (2-1)  
Colorado (4); 13-4 (6-2) *series in progress (3-0)
San Diego (3); 8-4 (4-2)
Arizona (3); 5-4 (3-3)
@San Diego (3); 8-4 (4-2)
@L.A. D. (3); 9-6 (4-2)

SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY RATING: 3.5
(ESPN) CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS: 99.9% (maintain)
SYNOPSIS: The NL West belongs to the Giants; September schedule is a walk-in-the-park. Their only real speed bump was playing ARZ at home and that went just fine for San Fran. The Giants have won every series they have played against San Diego this season and don’t expect them to slow down now with only a massive lead over LA. Depending on how well LA plays during their tough schedule, the Giants may have to use their starters early in OCT, but we assume that the outcome of OCT 3 game series between the division rivals will be irrelevant, at least for San Francisco.

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